DESPITE difficulties met by some of the country’s sectors amid a global financial crisis, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) has a positive outlook for 2010.
The export sector, which was severely affected by the economic turmoil that has distressed foreign markets, is expected to continue gearing up for the rebound.
“The crisis has given many of the exporters in the region an opportunity to evaluate and assess their businesses so that they could better prepare for the upswing,” said Neda 7 director Marlene Rodriguez during the Philippine economic briefing at the Marco Polo Plaza Hotel yesterday.
She said industry players have seen signs of improvement in orders, particularly in home decors and furniture, during the second semester of 2009.
Recovery
“This positive development is expected to expand to other sectors as the US and other world economies recover,” she said.
Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) 7 director Asteria Caberte said in yesterday’s briefing that the drop in exports may have bottomed out as merchandise exports increased by 11.9 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter this year.
US remained as the Philippines’ top export market. Other markets include Japan, The Netherlands, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Germany.
In Central Visayas, the region’s exports dropped by 23 percent compared to last year.
Neda, however, pointed out that there are indications that the sector is starting to benefit from improved conditions in the US and in other countries. The drop in the region’s export earnings has eased to 19 percent in the third quarter of 2009.
Neda is also anticipating the business process outsourcing industry to continuously grow and eventually expand its services.
“With the onset of the crisis, there was a sudden increase in demand for workers to handle human resource and other back office functions such as accounting and financial services,” said Rodriguez.
Neda is also expecting the growth of the retail sector to be fueled by the 2010 elections with its campaign spending. It is also expecting the tourism sector to achieve moderate growth as global tourism starts to recover.
“In 2010, stronger economic growth depends on effective fiscal and monetary stimulus, continued support from the private sector, and the sustained recovery in advanced economies and major trading partners,” said Rodriguez.
She said the drivers for 2009—retail trade, finance, mining and quarrying, outsourcing, and government services—will continue to contribute to the growth next year, along with manufacturing; transportation, communications, and storage; tourism; and agriculture.
In the third quarter of this year, the Philippines was one of the few economies in the Asian region that registered growth.
The country grew 0.8 percent.
Construction
Neda attributed this to the government’s Economic Resiliency Plan that boosted public construction by 22.5 percent and government consumption by 7.5 percent; strong OFW remittances; stable banking system; favorable inflation environment; and strong growth in various sectors such as air transport, retail trade, finance, and mining.
For 2009, the government is forecasting a 0.8 to 1.8 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and 2.1 to 3.1 percent growth. gross national product (GNP). In 2009, GDP is seen to improve to 2.6 to 3.6 percent while GNP is seen to grow to 4.7 to 5.6 percent.
To help achieve this, Neda lined up strategies, including improving competitiveness, sustaining macroeconomic stability stressing job creation, promoting an integrated culture of good governance, accelerating and boosting science and technology, adopting a comprehensive ecological framework, and hiking investments in human and social capital.
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