Thursday, February 2, 2012

Fund managers urged to exercise prudence



By Lawrence Agcaoili (The Philippine Star) Updated February 03, 2012 12:00 AM

MANILA, Philippines - The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) urged yesterday fund managers in the Philippines handling P3.8 trillion worth of funds to prepare for challenges brought about by the economic uncertainties in the US as well as the debt crisis in Europe.

BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. told members of the Fund Management Association of the Philippines (FMAP) that there is a need to maintain prudence amid uncertainty.

“The asset management industry, as a whole, faces a market landscape that has fundamentally changed in the last four to five years. Today we live in an environment of more stringent capital requirements, steeper yardsticks of governance and higher standards for consumer protection,” Tetangco stressed.

He pointed out that heightened market volatilities are likely to persist due to difficulties in the eurozone and in the US.

“Thankfully, for the asset management industry in the Philippines, all of this gloom and doom across the globe appears to contrast with what we have here today. With the proactive collaboration amongst stakeholders, the outstanding volume of assets managed under a fiduciary arrangement has significantly increased,” he added.

According to him, total assets under management by FMAP members stands at about P3.8 trillion or more than double the September 2008 level of P1.7 trillion.

He added that both the growth of the industry and the Philippine financial market should not be taken in isolation of worldwide parameters.

He explained that the domestic financial market has become more vulnerable to external developments due to increased mobility of capital across global financial centers.

“The uncertainties across the globe have become more easily translated into volatilities in the domestic financial markets, complicating both how you manage funds and how we manage policy,” Tetangco said.

The BSP chief said the rapidly changing market landscape heightens the fiduciary responsibility of fund managers as the value of funds being managed declined significantly as global and domestic interest rates have come down.

He said fund managers should be able to explain to investors that the gains from risk-taking may not be substantially higher than the joys of outright consumption today.

“Indeed, prudence must take precedence so that we maintain a balance between what clients would like and what the market can offer,” he added.

Tetangco said the BSP has revised the corporate governance and compliance frameworks for financial institutions, including banks and fund managers, toprotect investors as well as the banking public.

“Now, more than ever, prudence and proper perspective are key to working within a global market that remains unpredictable. If the Philippine market is to avoid the same volatilities, we must ensure that we move forward with deliberate circumspect,” he said.

However, the BSP chief was quick to add that the direct exposure of the Philippines to Europe is insignificant at 1.4 percent as of end-June last year from January 2010 level of 2.9 percent.

“But a disorderly or massive deleveraging of banks could deepen recession fears in Europe as a whole, and then translate to weakness in the economies of its trading partners among the emerging markets, including the Philippines. Indeed, we have seen some of this weakness gets reflected in our own lower trade numbers,” he said.

As for the US, Tetangco said the BSP would remain watchful of developments to see if the recent run of positive economic numbers would in fact translate to sustained improvements in their unemployment and housing situations.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Luxury brands make their mark in China



BEIJING—Barely a decade ago, Beijing bicyclists pedaled down alleys here lined with courtyard houses that had no indoor toilets.

Now, the alleys have been replaced by a wide avenue lined with Lambor-ghini, Ferrari, Bugatti and Rolls-Royce dealerships.

In 2011, Chinese bought more Lamborghinis and Rolls-Royces than anybody else in the world. In time for Chinese New Year this month, Rolls is unveiling a “Year of the Dragon” model with hand-embroidered versions of mythical animals on leather headrests. Prices start at $1.6 million.

China is on the verge of becoming the leading market for just about everything over-the-top expensive.

Companies obsessed with China a few years back for its flagrant counterfeiting now see it as their most promising customer, especially at a time when so many other nations are scrimping.

Gucci’s sales in China in the first half of 2011 were up 39 percent; Bottega Veneta’s more than 80 percent. Prada plans to open 50 shops over the next three years.

Chinese fashionistas are displacing those immaculate Japanese women in their Burberry scarves as the world’s leading consumers of luxury goods. The consulting firm McKinsey & Co. projected that China will bump Japan out of first place by 2015 as the leading market for pricey goods.

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Even with the softening of China’s real-estate market, the source of much new money, some analysts believe the Chinese already top the luxury market.

In fact, the sales figures understate Chinese spending because the rich here do much of their shopping abroad to avoid high taxes on luxury items and electronics.

So far, the Chinese haven’t approached the excesses of the so-called New Russians, who after the Soviet collapse were quickly flaunting diamond-encrusted baubles and mega-yachts.

After all, China is still at least nominally a communist country, and the culture is rich with proverbs about the terrible things that can befall you for showing off. (“A tall pine attracts more wind” and “Man should avoid fame like a pig avoids fattening,” to name two.)

Yet for some, conspicuous consumption, particularly in the social-media era, does not seem to be a problem. Young women post photographs of themselves on microblogs with their Hermès handbags.

The son of an auto tycoon uploaded on the Chinese equivalent of YouTube a video shot from behind the wheel of his $4.5-million Bugatti Veyron sports car weaving through traffic in the southern city of Chongqing.

“People are more extroverted. They have no problem showing off their wealth,” said Klaus Paur, an auto industry analyst and managing director in the Shanghai office of Synovate Motoresearch.

He recalls that when he came to China in 2003, the wealthy drove large Mercedeses and Audis, invariably in black.

Chinese officialdom has something of a love-hate relationship with luxury goods, officials relishing their own creature comforts while deploring anybody else doing it too flagrantly.

China still has 150 million people living on less than $1 a day. And it maintains some of the highest taxes in the world on luxury goods, adding up to 60 percent to the cost, which is why rich Chinese have become such prodigious shoppers abroad.

The word shechi, or luxury, is banned in advertising and company names, said Ouyang Kun, who runs a trade group in Beijing called the World Luxury Association. “The government feels luxury items are only affordable for a few people. They don’t want to create unharmonious feelings among the people,” he explained.

The Chinese equivalent of Rodeo Drive is a four-block strip in the heart of old Beijing along Jinbao Street, whose name appropriately means “gold treasure.” The street was built in 2002 out of two traditional hutongs, or alleys, one named Jinyu, or “goldfish,” and the other Yaba, or “mute man,” part of a larger redevelopment project that displaced more than 4,000 families.

Along the same row as the luxury car dealerships is a branch of Hong Kong’s Jockey Club and a seven-story mall where a Bottega Veneta handbag made of African crocodile skin can set you back $51,000 and a jewel-encrusted cell phone $132,000.

Expensive simply for the sake of expensive is all the rage. At a trade show on the resort island of Hainan in November, promoters unveiled a gold-plated toilet costing more than $200,000.

The recently opened Black Swan Luxury Bakery (that’s the English name; it’s the Black Swan Art Bakery in Chinese because of the ban on shechi) made headlines with a multitiered, cream-swathed wedding cake in the front window with a $314,000 price tag.

The phenomenon isn’t limited to Beijing. Drive through most dusty provincial capitals now and you’ll see high-end shops in the center of town, often alongside the People’s Square—a popular name in deference to communist tradition. In Chongqing, a city once famous for its revolutionary zeal, a five-story Louis Vuitton shop opened in September, overshadowing the iconic Liberation Monument.

Chinese buyers of luxury goods are generally young adults, in keeping with the relative youthfulness of the country’s millionaires (about 15 years younger than those in the West), according to the Shanghai-based Hurun Research Institute, which maintains a so-called rich list.

“Our customers are super-rich, second-generation young people who have inherited money or whose parents buy them cars,” said Wilson Ho, whose company, Hong Kong-based Sparkle Rolls, runs the Lamborghini dealership in Beijing. “Chinese parents love their kids. They’ll buy them whatever they like.”

Some of the new rich made their money selling cheap, mass-produced merchandise abroad. For themselves they want only the best.

“It’s not just about showing off. People have come to appreciate quality,” said Liu Lijuan, a young mother who was taking out a Salvatore Ferragamo wallet from a Louis Vuitton bag to pay for a birthday cake for her two-year-old daughter at the Black Swan.

The best increasingly means the real thing. Although knockoffs are still widely available, a McKinsey poll released in March found that the percentage of consumers willing to buy fake jewelry had dropped from 31 percent in 2008 to 12 percent.

Unlike Western consumers of the high end, who usually buy things for themselves, those in China are shopping for a gift as often as for themselves, according to market research.

“I like luxury brands. When you buy it for somebody else, it shows how much care you put into it,” said 26-year-old Liang Chunfeng, who carries a large, red Chanel purse that she coyly described as “a gift from somebody.”

Chinese sometimes use expensive gifts—whether Montblanc pens or luxury watches or $100-a-pack cigarettes—as a way of greasing the wheels while doing business. Politicians are frequent recipients.

In September, an activist published a report on the wristwatches worn by government officials based on publicly released photographs that he blew up and analyzed. Most flashy was the railroad minister, Sheng Guangzu, who appeared to own at least four luxury watches, including a Rolex, worth a total of $62,000.

“I can’t say there is a direct link between expensive watches and corruption, but you have to ask where they got these items that so obviously exceed in value their ordinary income,” said the activist, Daniel Wu.

A 20-year-old woman became Public Enemy No. 1 in June when she posted photographs of herself with luxury handbags, jewelry, a Maserati and a Lamborghini. On a blog, the woman, who writes under the name Guo Meimei, also claimed to be a manager for the Chinese Red Cross Society.

She was not an employee but had a relationship with a man who did business with the Red Cross. The government ordered an audit of the Red Cross, and the public was so outraged that blood donations fell precipitously and still have not recovered.

Eventually, the woman apologized in a tearful appearance on a popular Hong Kong television show, and said some of what she wrote on her blog was exaggerated. It was true she owned a Maserati, a present for her 20th birthday, she said, but her second car was not a Lamborghini—merely a Mini Cooper.


In Photo: Sports cars line up during the Shanghai International Circuit Club Challenge, in Shanghai, China, on May 14, 2011. At the Beijing Sports Car Club, a $220,000 Porsche SE 911 counts as an entry-level model. Members are competing with counterparts who race $3.9-million Tramontanas and $4.3-million Bugatti Veyron 16.4s. (Qilai Shen/Bloomberg)

Economists see economy slowing, but recession risk falling




THE US economy will slow this year after a flurry of stronger growth in late 2011, leaving the 8.5-percent unemployment rate about where it is now on Election Day, according to USA Today’s quarterly survey of economists.

The economy will slow to 2.2 percent annual growth in the first half of 2012 after an estimated 3.1-percent gain in fourth-quarter gross domestic product, according to the median forecast of the 48 economists surveyed.

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The biggest reason for slower growth is that a late-2011 bounce back from the effects of the Japanese earthquake last March won’t last, according to Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. Slower growth will help keep unemployment at 8.4 percent or higher through year’s end, economists predict.

“The little improvement we saw was partly catch-up; the retail recovery at Christmas was more hype than reality,” Swonk says. “Consumer confidence is still at recession levels, just not at depression levels.”

The good news:

• the risk of a US recession is falling. The median estimate of USA Today’s panel calling it only a 22-percent probability in the next 12 months;

• Europe’s financial crisis will shave only a quarter of a percentage point from this year’s US growth, the economists said;

• more than 90 percent of the economists think home prices have bottomed out, or will by the end of this year;

• the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates until the second half of 2013, half the experts says. Almost as many say it will be 2014 or later.

The shaky news:

• job growth will slow to a monthly pace of 144,000 new jobs early this year, rising to 165,000 a month in the fourth quarter, the panel predicted. The economy produced an average of 137,000 new jobs monthly in the fourth quarter, driven by December’s gain of 200,000;

• Unemployment won’t reach a healthy level until 2014 or later, the economists unanimously agreed.

The uncertainty has Wall Street betting that the Federal Reserve will do more to rekindle the economy, possibly as soon as the meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee on Tuesday and Wednesday. It might decide to pump as much as $1 trillion into the economy by buying mortgage-backed bonds from banks and institutions, Miller Tabak & Co. economic strategist Andrew Wilkinson says.

“The Fed is underwhelmed by the recovery,” he says. “They see the recovery hampered by the housing market, which is not going away anytime soon, and it’s causing employment gains to be lightweight.”

A 2011 Philippine Real Estate Industry Perspective



2011 was a landmark year for the Philippine property industry across all its sectors—and even proved stronger than the preceding one.

In a recent report by the BusinessMirror, a marked confidence seemed to have returned to the local real-estate industry at the start of the past year as foreign investments and improved infrastructures started to strengthen real growth in rental rates and yields.

The “landscape” has been in the state of a hectic swirl in the past 12 months as extensive construction transformed the Philippine capital into a growing world-class metropolis. Outlying provinces and major cities such as Laguna, Batangas and Cavite were likewise developed into vibrant economic growth areas that complemented the center of activity that is Metro Manila.

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In the first quarter of 2011, the industry was still reeling from the effects of the 1997 Asian financial crisis that brought the real-estate sector into a long ennui. After four years down in value, the current property boom indicated that the industry had awakened from its slumber and was on a steady climb.

In fact, CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) Philippines Chairaman and Chief Executive Officer Rick Santos said that there will be a continued show of confidence in 2012 in all sectors of the property industry. According to him, the strength the field had shown in the past year was built from 2010 and will also be significant coming into the present year.

According to Colliers International’s first-quarter report on the real-estate market, the Philippine government was optimistic that the economy will achieve a growth of 7 percent to 8 percent by the end of the year. Inflation had also started to accelerate, in March 2011 at 4.3 percent, a nine-month high.

In their follow-up report for the third quarter of the year, Colliers International claimed that the economy has already achieved then an increase of 3.4 percent. A major contributor to the growth was consumer spending which increased by 9.9 percent, although capital formation through construction dropped by 4.9 percent.

In addition, Business Monitor International stated in their property sector quarterly report that land values had also increased last year, but in a slower rise compare to the last quarter of 2010. With the current planned developments in the traditional business districts, land values were expected to grow at an average of 3 percent to 5 percent in 2011.

Despite difficulty sustaining economic momentum and with export demand from major developed trading partners softening, the Philippine real-estate sector had set for generally buoyant short-term expansion. High take-up rates kept pace with supply in the office segment, maintaining healthy rental growth.

The ever-expanding retail sector has made a competitive property market, of particular note the competitive rental rates south of Manila such as in Cebu. Thanks to the many special economic zones and foreign manufactures looking for lower-cost operating environments, the promise in the industrial real-estate market was encouraging.

Commercial/Office Market Overview

Despite issues with oversupply in several areas, office space rental take-up was expected to increase by about 10 percent in 2011. As a result, conditions are positive in all commercial sectors, such as office, retail and hotel as well as in residential property.

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In the KMC MAG Group third-quarter market report in the same year, the economy continuously gained strength from the start until the end. Given the momentum, Metro Manila’s commercial real-estate market also continues to accelerate.

Last year’s performance was also largely led by the rapid takeoff of the business-processing outsourcing (BPO) sector. This—combined with an overall positive outlook of stakeholders toward the current administration—helped increase the demand for major investment properties.

Increased political stability also promoted investor confidence in the Philippines. Foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to flow as companies discover attractive investment options for the Philippines. The commercial real-estate market (particularly Philippine Economic Zone Authority or PEZA-accredited buildings) has seen increased demand in response to this.

Behavior of investment sales activity remained modest with rates per square meters at the range of P130,000 for Bonifacio Global City, P95,000 for the Makati Central Business District (CBD) and P80,000 for Ortigas.

The same promising outlook for the commercial/office sector of the Philippine real-estate industry, as stated, was driven by the upsurge in the number of BPOs which set up their headquarters in the country. The employment and income boom generated by these companies, in turn, fuel a consumer boom that has resulted in the take-up of more commercial spaces.

Residential Market Overview

The Philippines’s major real-estate developers led by Ayala Land, Vista Land, Robinsons Land Corp., Century Properties, Megaworld Corp. and Rockwell Land have been actively launching residential projects. Pre-selling entire towers in advance of construction is common.

The market is divided between owner-occupants and investors hoping to turn a profit; however, majority of the investment is driven by the secondary market: potential tenants searching for units available for lease, including short-term rentals to accommodate tourists.

Also, the demand for condominiums is expected to gain strength as the number of companies establishing offices in the CBD and their employees steadily gaining numbers. With the increased requirements of high-rise, mid-rise and low-rise estates, Phinma Properties, DMCI Homes, New San Jose Builders and SM Development Corp. were deemed to be the major players in this sector. They have established a niche in this market segments together with some more key players such as Camella Condo Homes of Vista Land and Amaia of Ayala Land.

CBRE’s Santos said that the affordable condominium market is one segment that changed the landscape of housing development because it has attracted a lot of buyers from the middle class and OFW households.

Designed for the predominantly “C” socioeconomic class, the reasonably priced condominium is an ideal investment for young professionals working in the business districts of Metro Manila as well as start-up families or first-time buyers. This scenario is also being seen emerging in key urban centers such as Metro Cebu and Metro Davao.

2012 Outlook

The residential and commercial/office and segments of the Philippine real-estate industry have shown remarkable year-on-year growth in terms of the number of development projects, as well as sales. These developments indicate that it is now on a growth trajectory expected to be sustained in the short to medium term.

The Philippines is thus expected to emerge from this cycle as a country with bustling metropolitan areas with ultra-modern skylines and picturesque housing estates. The landscape, in turn, will make the country a better and more conducive place to reside and do business in and thus will lay the foundations for future industry growth.

The promising outlook for the residential sector of the local real-estate industry is fuelled by rising incomes due to the steady growth in the economy for the past several years, as well as massive interest among overseas Filipinos wanting to establish permanent or temporary residence in the country of their birth or ancestry. The continuous influx of expatriates in the country likewise contributes to the demand for such residential facilities.

Going into 2012, Santos said the trend to watch is the things that will happen in European economy and whether they will be forced to outsource to cut cost. “Large financial companies will be under increased pressure to save money and will thus outsource their support functions here,” he said.

He said there will also be a trend toward maintaining satisfactory property management of buildings to ensure the loyalty of tenants.

In 2012, Asuncion said he sees new property developments in secondary areas will take longer to sell or lease inventory relative to those situated in prime locations. “This will cause the total industry statistics such as vacancies and lease rates to be challenged,” he said.

(Sources: Colliers International, KMC MAG Group, Business Monitor International, CB Richard Ellis Philippines and Raoul Rizal Reyes/Correspondent–BusinessMirror)

In Photo: Development ongoing: Construction takes place at a major mixed-use property. (Bloomberg News)

B.I.R. ordered to raise taxes of professionals, self-employed



FINANCE Secretary Cesar Purisima has told the Bureau of Internal Revenue to implement measures to drastically increase the average income-tax payments of professionals and self-employed this year.

At the sidelines of the Tax Management Association of the Philippines on Tuesday evening, Purisima said he was “personally” monitoring the income-tax payments of professionals and self-employed down to the BIR’s regional district offices.

“The income-tax payments of the professionals should drastically increase by year-end. And I asked BIR to increase the average payment,” he said.

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The finance secretary said he wanted to see the current average of P5,600 income-tax payment of the professionals to increase to an average P100,000 by the end of the year.

When asked if the target was doable, Purisima said: “We will continue to set ambitious goals in order for the BIR to reach its [revenue] goal.”

This was the first time that government gave the BIR a target that would breach the P1 trillion mark.

“If (BIR Commissioner) Kim Henares reaches her target, she will be the first one to collect [revenues of] more than P1 trillion,” Purisima said.

The BIR earlier said it raised its target collection from professionals and other self-employed individuals to P222.28 billion this year, an increase of 15 percent from 2011’s projected revenue of P192.72 billion.

Income taxes from individuals account for more than 20 percent of the BIR’s tax collection; the bulk, however, comes from salaried individuals whose income taxes are automatically withheld by their employers.

The BIR is using its Run After Tax Evaders (RATE) program to drive the professionals and self-employed to report their income and pay the right taxes. During the previous months, the BIR has been filing cases against professionals, such as doctors and lawyers.

The first case against professionals involved the P2.9-million tax deficiency of Drs. Vicente Gana Castillo and Ma. Teresa Chan Castillo.

Purisima said earlier that the incidence of tax evasion among professionals in the country was high.

The Professional Regulation Commission lists some 3 million registered professionals in the country; around 190,000 are doctors and lawyers, the two top earners. The rest are accountants, engineers, nurses and seafarers who are either self-employed or employed.

This year, the BIR has been given a target of P1.066 trillion, some 63 percent of which will come from the large taxpayers.


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