Osmeña: Political cycle and real estate development in Cebu

Antonio V. Osmeña
Estatements

IT is interesting to note that real estate activity has experienced cyclical swings, which recurred with rhythmic regularity together with our country’s political cycle.

In our country, real estate booms and depressions, though varying in intensity, followed intervals of political crisis.

Prior to the declaration of then President Ferdinand E. Marcos of martial law in our country, the administrative era of then President Diosdado Macapagal in the early 1960s was believed to catapult the Philippines into a highly industrialized country within the region. This real estate cycle indicates a definite relationship between real estate/general business activity and political stability—the principal difference, being the greater peak intensity of real estate booms and depressions and longer years, i.e., the span of the cycle.

Cebu’s political cycle has caused bewilderment among its inhabitants. At the end of World War 2, Cebu City had its political kingpin. In Cebu City, there was Mayor Vicente del Rosario and in the Province of Cebu, Gov. Manuel Cuenco.

President Sergio Osmeña Sr., who lost against Manuel Roxas in the presidential race, came back home to Cebu to retire peacefully from politics. By then Sergio Osmeña Jr. decided to enter the political arena in Cebu, thus taking the political reign of Cebu as governor, congressman, mayor and senator until his exile to the US when our country lost its democracy.

In 1986 when political freedom was restored, the third generation of Don Sergio took over the politics in Cebu. Emilio was the first third generation Osmeña to become governor of Cebu. Back then the incumbent was Cebu City Mayor Jose V. Cuenco, the son of the late Gov. Manuel Cuenco. Tomas the son of Serging Jr. decided to enter politics and beat mayor Cuenco.

The political fortune of the Garcias began when Gov. Lito Osmeña decided to endorse and support Rep. Pablo Garcia as candidate for governor. The entry of the Garcias in Cebu City by Alvin was due to the endorsement and support of Tomas Osmeña, which made him (Alvin) mayor of Cebu City. Today, we have the daughter of Rep. Pablo Garcia as governor of Cebu. The brother of Gov. Gwendolyn Garcia, Pablo John, is congressman of the third district of Cebu.

It must be remembered that the patriarch of the Garcias—Jesus, Pablo and Tom—did not come from the elite clan but from hardworking parents who made them study and work hard to attain their provident.

Will the political cycle of the third generation Osmeña end with Tomas? Will Minnie or Georgia continue the political cycle of the Osmeñas? Of course, there is still John Henry, Emilio Jr. and Serge III, who may enter (or re-enter) politics.

The political sphere of Don Ramon Durano has always been the satellite of Danao City. Serging Junior had a very strong political leadership over many decades in Cebu.

The politicians during the martial law regime do not deserved to be recognized because there was no political freedom. Fortunately, there is a semblance of government stability today. However, the general business recession during the Marcos era has disastrously affected the real estate industry.

Will crystal-ball gazing to foretell future events tell us that there will be no coup d‘etat, no graft and corruption and a perpetual government stability? It is understandable, therefore, that the real estate business in general take a keen interest in scientific methods that may foreshadow the course of future events. Unfortunately, the subprime mortgage fiasco in the US disprove the scientific economic forecasting in a truly stable country like the US.

The real estate cycle is, in fact, a composite of the general business, housing or construction cycles and politics.

Irrespective of the validity of the cycle theory, a study of real estate economic market behavior and the causes that influence its supply and demand is deemed essential as a guide to those who serve the market in a business capacity or those who seek sound real estate investment opportunities.

For those who enter the real estate market, a knowledge of the social, economic, and political forces that affect real estate as a commodity and of the legal requirements which govern the transfer of real estate and limit its ownership and use is an essential and basic prerequisite.