THE economy may have grown by at least 5 percent in the first quarter, according to local think tank First Metro Investment Corp.-University of Asia and the Pacific (FMIC-UA&P) Capital Market Research Center.
In its latest issue of Market Call that seemed to support the optimism of Trade Secretary Gregory T. Domingo about the economy, the FMIC-UA&P Capital Market Research Center said a growth of 5 percent or more is possible on the back of improved jobs data, increased government spending, exports recovery and benign inflation.
“Economic data made available in the first quarter would indicate a much-improved economy, which lead us to forecast a gross domestic product [GDP] growth of 5 percent or more for the quarter,” the center said.
The FMIC-UA&P Capital Market Research Center noted that in the January 2012 Labor Force Survey (LFS), the economy generated 1.1 million jobs; inflation also slid to a 29-month low of 2.7 percent.
The center also said the national government started the year running with a fiscal deficit of P15.9 billion, despite a strong 12.5-percent increase in tax revenues and exports in January growing by 4 percent, the first positive growth after eight months.
The think tank added that the optimistic outlook and data were supported by the latest Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) released by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB).
The NSCB data showed that eight of the 11 economic figures positively contributed to the overall LEI, which reached 0.285, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2008.
“For the first quarter of 2012, the LEI posted 0.238 from a revised 0.158 in the fourth quarter of 2011. The latest LEI computations show the index in firmer positive territory auguring well for the domestic economy to start off the year of the dragon,” the NSCB said earlier.
The center also said that unlike in previous months, the Greek debt crisis is already showing signs of resolution and
the US economy is already showing signs of a recovery, although at a slower pace.
The center cited McKinsey’s recent global survey of more than 2,000 executives in March. The results showed that 42 percent of the respondents viewed the current economic situation, compared to six months ago, as moderately or substantially better, compared to only 20 percent in December.
The Market Call report said 46 percent of the McKinsey survey expected moderately or substantially better economic conditions in the next six months in March, compared to only 29 percent in December.
No comments:
Post a Comment