WEDNESDAY, 14 SEPTEMBER 2011 21:06 CAI U. ORDINARIO / REPORTER
AS the national government includes in its priority measures the passage of the reproductive-health bill, a study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) stated that the Philippines, along with India, can benefit economically from its large and relatively younger population until 2050.
In a special chapter on Preparing for Demographic Transition in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2011 Update, the Manila-based multilateral bank said while the rest of Asia is experiencing rapidly decreasing fertility rates and rising life expectancy, countries like the Philippines and India still enjoy high fertility rates which ensure a more productive labor force for many more years.
“Broadly speaking, we can think of three groups in the region. The first group, countries like Korea and Singapore are in the advanced stage in the demographic transition and coping with population and aging is an urgent issue. Note that old age dependency in Korea will rise by a factor of 6 in 2050, which is a rate of increase in this ratio that is unprecedented in history. At the other end, countries like India and the Philippines are at the very early stage of the demographic transition and they still have relatively young populations. Now, somewhere in the middle, are countries like China and Thailand which have still some benefits to be accrued from having relatively younger populations but are rapidly reaching the end of those benefits,” ADB Assistant Chief Economist Joseph E. Zveglich Jr. explained in a briefing at the ADB Headquarters on Wednesday.
Based on the report, among these benefits is higher economic growth. The Philippines’ annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth is expected to increase by 1.097 percentage points between 2011 to 2020 and another 0.779 percentage points between 2021 to 2030
This is consistent with the results with countries with relatively younger populations. These include India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan which are also expected to reap the demographic dividend between 2011 to 2020 and see a continuation of this growth between the 2021 to 2030 period.
However, economies like Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea and Singapore, where population aging is well under way, will already start experiencing a negative impact on growth between 2011 and 2020.
Economies like China, Taipei, Thailand, and Vietnam, where aging began at a later date, the impact on economic growth will still be positive between 2011 to 2020 but will turn negative or become a demographic tax between 2021 to 2030.
“For countries in the advanced stages, life expectancy rates have reached high levels and will continue to rise steadily. Moreover, fertility rates have declined to very low levels—lower than those of the US and many European countries, and have not increased, unlike in the lowest fertility countries in Europe,” the report stated.
“Clearly, countries in the early stages of the demographic transition stand to benefit from population aging. The youth-dependency ratios of India and the Philippines, for instance, are projected to fall from 1:2 to 1:3 by 2050. In contrast, the corresponding ratios of middle- or late-stage countries are not likely to see any substantial changes,” it added.
However, by 2050, the Philippines, Pakistan and India’s demographic dividend are also expected to be at its final stages. The ADB said this means these countries have a relatively narrow window of opportunity to take economic advantage of their youthful populations before they also begin to age.
This is why the Philippines and India must capitalize on their demographic dividend by creating a conducive policy environment that encourages the creation of jobs and further training of their human resource
No comments:
Post a Comment