Tuesday, August 14, 2012

The worst is yet to come



ARE we ready for the next deluge?
This question comes to the fore anew as the torrential rains induced by the southwest monsoon (hanging habagat) last week spawned terrible floods that put major parts of Luzon, including the National Capital Region (NCR), under several feet or meters of water.
And as if this were not enough, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has issued a warning that “the worst is yet to come.”
Pagasa Administrator Nathaniel Servando said that until the end of the year, the Philippines would continue to experience heavy rains aggravated by severe weather disturbances.
After Tropical Storm Gener, the seventh to hit the country in the early week of August, more typhoons are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, Servando said.

 
The Philippines, being in the “typhoon belt,” is hit by an average of 19 weather disturbances in a year. Experts believe these intensifying typhoons and heavy rains during the wet season and the extreme heat during the dry months are manifestations of the worst impacts of climate change.
Last week’s three days of rain, the official noted, dumped more water than usual.  The rain started on August 6 and continued to pour in huge volumes until August 8. An estimated 1,000 millimeters of rainwater doused Luzon during these three wet days.
The rains made rivers, creeks and waterways overflow, causing terrible floods, paralyzing Metro Manila and many parts of Luzon.
Classes were suspended in all levels almost immediately after the initial downpour on August 6 because of the flash floods that followed. Malacañang also issued a work-suspension order covering both public and private sectors.
Servando said that compared to Ondoy, the duration of last week’s monsoon rains was longer.
“During Ondoy, the rain lasted only for 24 hours, although the volume of water was relatively bigger. The southwest monsoon lasted for three days,” he said.
The official said that while the weather was expected to improve this weekend, intermittent rains would still be experienced because of the southwest monsoon. (As of this writing, Pagasa reported that an active low pressure area was spotted 1,000 kilometers east of the flood-devastated Central Luzon.)
Apparently, the failure of concerned government agencies to improve solid-waste management and the indiscriminate dumping of garbage caused canals, creeks and rivers to clog, preventing the natural flow of the floodwaters to open seas.
Experts also blamed the flash floods on the poor condition of the country’s watersheds, particularly the degraded forests that in the past prevented water in the upland areas from rapidly finding its way to low-lying areas.
The Marikina watershed, for instance, a 22-hectare forest, is now badly degraded. Only an estimated 20-percent forest cover is left after years of destructive human activities, such as harvesting of wood for fuel and production of charcoal for commercial purposes.
The Marikina watershed is supposed to provide natural protection against flood for Marikina, Quezon City, Pasig City and several towns in the province of Rizal and low-lying areas that surround it.
During the three days of heavy rains, all of the country’s dams in Luzon reached critical, if not spilling levels, forcing authorities to release huge volumes of water that caused major rivers to overflow their banks, turning streets and highways into raging rivers.
The release of water from the dams affected San Manuel, San Nicolas, Tayug, Santa Maria, Asingan, Villasis, Alcala, Bautista, Rosales and Bayambang in Pangasinan; and several towns in Isabela, Cabanatuan, La Union, Bulacan and Rizal.
People living in the areas near the Ipo, Ambuklao, Binga, San Roque and Magat dams were also alerted on the possible release of water. So, too, were those near La Mesa Dam.
Even some stretches of the North Luzon Expressway were rendered impassable by the floods; same with some parts of Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (Edsa) and Quezon and Commonwealth avenues.
Aguinaldo Highway, a road that connects Cavite to Metro Manila, was also rendered impassable because of waist-deep flood in the Bacoor, Cavite, area.
Despite preparations after Ondoy wreaked havoc on the metropolis more than two years ago, it became apparent that the disaster risk-reduction plans failed to meet expectations.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), at least 2.8 million people were affected by the floods that also left 66 people dead; six persons remain missing.
The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported that a total of 460,273 families, or 2.11 million people, in 30 cities in 16 provinces were affected.
More than half a million people were evacuated and thousands had to be rescued at the last minute after they stubbornly refused to voluntarily leave their flooded homes.
The floods required the use of schools, churches and covered court as evacuation centers.  Based on the DSWD’s count, some 292,800 people were taken to 488 evacuation centers while 245,636 had to seek shelter in the houses of friends and relatives.
The floods induced by the monsoon rains and Typhoon Gener also damaged P1.095 billion in farm crops in Central Luzon alone.
So far, cost of assistance to victims has already reached P126.7 million and the figure is expected to go up in the coming days as relief operations continue to provide food, water and medicine to those affected by the calamity.
In Bulacan alone, 143 barangays went under water. Close to 3,000 families were taken to temporary evacuation centers.  The provincial government of Bulacan declared the entire province under state of calamity.
Aside from Bulacan, Bataan, Pampanga and Zambales in Region 3 and Laguna in Region 4A; Culion, El Nido and Linacapan in Palawan were also declared calamity areas.
In the NCR, areas declared under a state of calamity include Marikina, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela, Muntinlupa, San Juan, Pasig, Pasay, Caloocan and Pateros.
In the flood-prone city of Malabon and Valenzuela, local officials sought the help of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Coast Guard to provide rubber boats to boost their rescue efforts.  Many of those trapped inside their houses had to swim and stay on top of roofs as floodwaters reached 4 to 5 meters high in some areas.
Valenzuela City Mayor Sherwin Gatchalian said the recent flood experienced by the city’s residents was worse than the flood caused by Ondoy.
Provident Village in Marikina City, which was devastated by Ondoy in September 2009, as expected, experienced severe floods, trapping many residents who were unable to evacuate at the last minute. The same was experienced in Roxas District, Quezon City, which was also submerged by floodwater during Ondoy.
In Barangay Commonwealth, Quezon City, nine members of a family were buried alive in a landslide. More than 10 years ago, experts identified the area as highly susceptible to landslides.
Local officials said those trapped and had to be rescued from their flooded homes refused to heed warnings and advice for them to evacuate to safer grounds.
Most of those killed were swept away by the raging floodwaters while trying to cross the streets to reach safer ground.
The NDRRMC said that a total of 3,035 houses were affected in Regions 1, 3, 4A, 4B and 6.  Of the number, 358 were destroyed; the rest were damaged.
Makeshift homes of squatters along esteros and rivers were also washed away by the strong currents.
According to the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council, in Metro Manila alone, there are 180,000 squatters living in so-called danger zones that need to be relocated.
But the Kalipunan ng Damayang Mahihirap (Kadamay) placed the number of people living in “danger zones” to 500,000.
Carlito Badion, leader of Kadamay, said the situation was “a manifestation of the failure of the Aquino administration to address the worsening squatting problem in the country.”
The habagat will continue to induce rain until September and the forecast of “severe weather disturbances” may again aggravate the situation, bringing back the specter of Ondoy-like floods, Servando said.
“The southwest monsoon will continue to induce rain and there’s a possibility of more flooding in the next few days,” he said.
Servando said the monsoon season lasts from June to September.
Connie Dadiva, of the country’s weather bureau, said this month, three to four typhoons are expected to hit the country.  The same number is expected in September, after which the northern wind or amihan will start to set in, shifting rain from Luzon to the Visayas and Mindanao starting in October.
The severe floods in areas not normally hit by such geological hazards, Servando said, is a manifestation of the worst impacts of climate change, citing, for instance, the recent massive flood experienced in Beijing, China.
In the Philippines the change in the weather pattern—excessive and longer duration of rains during the “wet season” and extreme heat and longer period of drought during the “dry season”—is a clear manifestation of climate change, Servando added.
“We need to be prepared for the worst impacts of climate change,” he said.
Servando called for increased level of area-specific awareness and consciousness of the various geological hazards, such as flood and landslide.
“The people should always be on alert.  They have to know the risks they are exposed to in their communities during calamities,” he said.
According to Servando, proper coordination between concerned national and local government units and the communities prone to floods and landslides is imperative to reduce the risk of disaster.
The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), meanwhile, said intensifying typhoons, the longer-than-usual duration of rains, severe and longer season of drought, are the “new normal” and people have to adapt to such climate-change impacts.
The DENR chief said the agency is in the process of creating bigger geological hazard maps with a scale of 1:10,000 to pinpoint areas that are prone to floods and landslides in every barangay.
The current geological hazard map made available as early as 2010 is smaller, and with a scale of 1:50,000, making it difficult to pinpoint highly “at risk” areas.
Even so, however, unless these areas considered “danger zones” are declared unfit for human settlement, disasters will continue to claim more lives and destroy millions in crops and private and public property.

In Photo: This photo released by the Department of National Defense on Wednesday shows flooded areas in Bulacan and Two parents place their daughters on a large basin as they move to higher ground to avoid the floods in Pasig City on Thursday. (AP Photo/Department of National Defense)

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