- Published on Monday, 03 December 2012 18:29
- Written by Bloomberg News
China
may maintain its annual economic growth target at 7.5 percent next year
in a sign the new leadership headed by Xi Jinping won’t tolerate a
bigger slowdown from the lowest goal since 2004.
Nine
of 16 analysts surveyed from November 22 to 30 by Bloomberg News
forecast the government will set a goal unchanged from 2012, while six
expect a decline to 7 percent and one sees an increase to 8 percent.
Top economic officials
meet this month to map out policies for 2013 and may set the target
that will be officially announced in March at the annual session of
parliament.
A goal of 7.5 percent
would signal that Xi and Li Keqiang, set to succeed Wen Jiabao as
premier, are prepared to expand fiscal and monetary easing should
China’s nascent economic recovery falter.
A manufacturing gauge
rose to a seven-month high in November, data released December 1 showed,
adding to evidence growth is rebounding from a three-year low.
“This will send a
clear message from the new leadership that they want to ensure stable
economic growth,” said Li Miaoxian, a Beijing-based economist with Bocom
International Holdings Co., the investment banking unit of Bank of
Communications Co. “Seven percent would be too low because it will make
the market worry.”
Li forecast a target
of 7.5 percent, which he said would probably lead to actual growth
higher than 8 percent and allow the government to be “more
accommodative” in its economic policies than it could with a 7-percent
goal.
The
increase in November’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’
Index to 50.6 underscores optimism the economy is recovering after a
seven-quarter slowdown. A gauge of new orders rose to its highest level
since April and the output reading was the highest in six months,
according to the report from the National Bureau of Statistics and China
Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.
Baoshan Iron &
Steel Co., the nation’s biggest publicly traded mill, said on November
12 that it would raise prices for most cold-rolled products for December
delivery, the first increase for three months.
A
separate manufacturing index released on Monday from HSBC Holdings Plc.
and Markit Economics, which focuses on smaller businesses, rose to 50.5
in November, showing the first expansion in 13 months. Services
industries maintained their pace of expansion last month, according to a
federation PMI on Monday that showed a 55.6 reading, up from 55.5 in
October.
The yuan had its
fourth monthly gain, its longest winning streak in more than a year, on
signs economic growth is recovering. The currency climbed 0.2 percent in
November to 6.2267 per dollar in Shanghai and was little changed on
Monday as of 9:19 a.m., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Elsewhere in Asia,
Japan reported capital spending excluding software rose more than
expected last quarter, while Australian retail sales were unchanged in
October from the previous month. Thailand and Indonesia may say
inflation slowed last month from a year earlier, surveys
showed. (Bloomberg News)
In Photo: A
worker paints pipes at a petrochemical plant under construction in
Daying county in southwest China’s Sichuan province. World stock markets
rose on Thursday after a survey showed that China’s manufacturing
expanded for the first time in 13 months, a rare good news for the
struggling global economy. (AP)
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